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Euro dollar forecast (May 2021) - what's next?

In this article you can current euro dollar forecasts, Read assessments and prospects. How will the EUR / USD currency pair develop further? Our analyzes are based on Daily chart for the short term tendencies and trends that Weekly and monthly charts for the medium-term assessment, and the Quarterly and annual charts for the long-term movements in the foreign exchange market.

Current rate of EUR / USD | Read more about the euro

We look at the price development on the forex market for euro / dollar with the charts of TradingView. The euro-dollar forecasts are made by Christian Möhrer.

Euro dollar forecast: dynamic following the February high

Last update: May 18, 2021
The development of the EUR / USD currency pair is shown using the short-term daily chart.
Which Euro dollar forecast can be derived?

At the time of the analysis, the EUR / USD was trading at 1.2226. Starting from a local high at the beginning of the year, a correction to below 1.1750 has formed. The subsequent intermediate recovery was characterized by an almost constant upward movement, the tests on the SMA20 were caught up with strong movements.

Today, Tuesday, the course will also dynamically follow the Morning Star candle formation from last Friday. The 1.2200 mark was also surpassed with a strong candle.

Resistance: 1,2243 | 1,2310 | 1,2349
Support: 1,2092 | 1,2011 | 1,1952
SMA20: 1,2092

Euro dollar forecast based on the daily chart: As long as the prices are above the SMA20, prices will likely continue to rise. The last local high at 1.2243 has just been hit and may now offer initial resistance. A pullback on the SMA20 could be expected in the present situation.

If the momentum continues, it would also be possible to reach a new annual high. This would confirm the continuation of the overall upward trend. On the other hand, a break below the nearby SMA could bring targets around 1.1750 back into focus.

EUR / USD forecast: weekly chart can maintain strength

Last update: May 15, 2021
The development of the euro dollar currency pair is shown using the medium-term weekly chart.
Which Euro dollar forecast can be derived?

At the time of writing this analysis, the EUR / USD is trading at 1.2145. In the weekly chart shown, we see an intact upward trend based on the previous year's low at 1.0636.

This is shown to be weaker in the ongoing correction with the test on the SMA50, but has recovered significantly in the past few weeks and regained the SMA20 and the support of the high from 2017.

Resistance: 1,2243 | 1,2349 | 1,2555
Support: 1,2092 | 1,2011 | 1,1602

Medium-term euro dollar forecast based on the weekly chart: With prices above the sideways SMA20, the chart image can still be assessed as neutral. The successful test on the rising SMA50 in connection with the dynamic recovery are indications of a possible continuation of the trend.

The new annual high that is necessary for a confirmed continuation of the overarching upward trend could now also be reached. On the other hand, the next break below the nearby SMA20 would again focus on targets around 1.1750.

Dollar rate forecast: May continues the recovery

Last update: May 15, 2021
The development of the EUR / USD exchange rate is shown using the medium-term monthly chart.
Which Euro dollar forecast can be derived?

At the time of writing this analysis, the EUR / USD is trading at 1.2145. In the monthly chart shown, we can see that the EUR / USD currency pair has broken out of the long-term downtrend line. After a good start to the year, the share price was weaker in March and recovered somewhat in April. The current month of May can continue the movement and is currently trading in the area around 1.2150.

Resistance: 1,2555
Support: 1,1602

Medium-term euro dollar forecast based on the monthly chart: The long-term downtrend line can be viewed as broken. The next resistance is to be expected at the annual high of 2018. With prices above the November low, the outlook on the monthly chart remains positive.

Should the price fall back below the November low at 1.1602, there would initially be a sideways phase between the upward trend line (green dashed) and the 2018 high.

Euro dollar forecast: long-term downtrend line seems to have been overcome

Last update: April 24, 2021
At the time of writing this analysis, the EUR / USD is trading at 1.2096.
The development of the EUR / USD currency pair is shown using the long-term quarterly chart (3-month chart).
Which EUR / USD forecast can be derived?

In the quarterly chart shown, we can see that the EUR / USD crossed the downtrend line (gray dashed) in the fourth quarter of 2020. The current quarter is currently within this range.

Long term resistance: 1,2555
Long-term support: 1,1602 | 1,1000

Long-term euro dollar forecast based on the quarterly chart: We are looking at a positive chart image. The EUR / USD currency pair has turned up in the area of ​​the long-term support line. This also enabled the downtrend line to be taken.

The mark of the high from 2018 will show whether a trend reversal towards the long-term resistance line can take place.

Long-term euro dollar forecast based on the annual chart

Last update: April 24, 2021
The development of the EUR / USD is shown using the long-term annual chart.
Which Euro dollar exchange rate forecast can be derived?

In the annual chart shown, we see a long-term upward trend. The correction from the high of 2008 bottomed in 2017 on the long-term support line. Over the past six years, the euro-dollar forex pair has moved sideways in a trading range.

The 2020 annual candle shows a clear recovery from the low and was able to beat the 2015 high of 1.2107 in the closing price. In the current year, the EURUSD is currently trading just below 1.2100.

Resistance:1,2555
Support: 1,0340

Long-term EUR / USD forecast based on the annual chart: The long-term chart image is positive. We could currently be witnessing a new upward movement towards the upper trend channel.

The chart image of the annual chart would turn negative if the support line got into trouble and the low of 2017 at 1.0340 is broken.

Frequently asked questions about the EUR / USD forecast from our readers

Which tools and indicators do you use in the chart? (Legend)

For a visual representation, less is often more. So we limit ourselves in the chart to tried and tested instruments. Usually the moving averages (S.impleM.ovingA.verage =SMA) to use. In addition, close supports and resistances as well as short and longer term downtrend and uptrend lines:

- blue line = moving average (SMA) from 20 periods
- green line = moving average (SMA) from 50 periods
- Orange line = moving average (SMA) from 200 periods
- black dashed line = supports and resistances from previous highs and lows
- green dashed line = long-term uptrend line or support (series of lows)
- red dashed line = long-term downtrend line or resistance (series of high points)
- gray line = short-term trend line (temporary use)

On what basis do you make your forecasts?

For the most part, thetechnical analysis for use. It is helpful to determine the support and resistance in larger time units.

If several factors come together at these points, for example a monthly or annual high, this brand can send a strong signal to market participants.
In addition, the classic moving averages (20, 50 and 200 periods) often show surprisingly precise limits to price movements. Their crossing points can also form significant brands.

Trend lines arise when at least three high or low points of the previous course can be connected with a straight line. The longer such a line runs and the more points it connects, the stronger its effect. A projection of these lines into the future can represent possible course targets.

When will the euro rise?

It is impossible to precisely estimate the timing of the basic price development. Based on the evaluation of the past price behavior, we limit the forecast to likely scenarios in the context of an "if> then" analysis.
This can be illustrated well for the current quarterly chart: If the long-term downtrend line is broken upwards, the price can rise as shown in the green rectangle. A possible target price is the 1.2500 mark.

Will the euro fall any further?

This depends on the current situation in the respective chart. Currently, the price could bounce off the long-term downtrend line (dashed red) and, as has already happened several times in the previous course, head for the long-term uptrend line (dashed green). Should this happen, the target price could be 1.0850.

Will the euro develop stronger or weaker?

This question cannot be answered with a clear result either. When determining an exchange rate, the currency is set in relation to another currency. This results in a conversion rate for the moment under consideration.
In the medium to long term, in addition to the news situation, fundamental data on the corresponding currency areas or home countries of the currency pair analyzed play a role.

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