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China and India - regional powers today, world powers tomorrow (11 ...

8 Summary of Heinz Nissel .............................................. ....... 748.1 Summary of security and Military ................................. Heinz Nissel, Daniel Welser ........... ........................................ 77 Part 2: India1 Introduction ............................................... ........................................ 802. Development of security policy Indias ...................................... Gerald Brettner-Messler ....... .................................................. ....... 823. India: Economic developments and Trends ........................... Katia Vlachos-Dengler .................. ................................................. 953.1 Backgroundand .................................................. .......................... 953.2 The Indian economy: growth model .................. ........ 973.3 The effects of the global economic crisis on India 993.4 Response of the government to the crisis .................................. 1013.5 What does the future look like for the Indian " Economicsandhe “from? 1014. The development of security and Defense policy IndiasDaniel Welser ................................................ ............................... 1044.1 The external and security environment ...................... 1044.1.1 Pakistan ...................... .................................................. 1044.1.2 Afghanistan .............................................. .................... 1064.1.3 USA .......................... .................................................. .. 1074.1.4 Russia ............................................ ........................... 1084.1.5 China .................................................. .......................... 1094.2 Priorities of the military .................... ............................... 1114.2.1 Budget .............................................. ............................ 1114.2.2 Army .............................................. ................................ 1124.2.3 Air Force .............................................. ........................ 1134.2.4 Marine .............................................. ............................ 1154.2.5 Missile Technology and Missile defense ..................... 1165. Strategic (nuclear) forces Indias Thomas Pankratz ........... 1176. India - Demography Heinz Nissel ............................................. 1236.1 Summary................................................. ............... 1236.2 Population analyzes in India .......................................... 1236.3 billion population and Women's deficit ............................... 1246.4 Population development so far ............... .......................... 1252

6.5 Population forecasts ................................................ ....... 1276.6 North-South contrast of development and possible political consequences ................................................ ...................... 1296.7 Literacy and Urbanization ................................... 1306.8 In-depth demographic analyzes .......... ...................... 1317. India - Country and Politics Heinz Nissel ....................................... 1347.1 Favorable conditions for the development of democracy ... .. 1347.2 The leadership role of the Congress ....................................... 1357.3 The differentiation of political Parties ........................ 1377.4 Strengths and Weaknesses of Indian domestic politics ................... 1387.5 The role model effect Indias ................................................. 1398. The Society Indias - outline and Conflicts ..................... Gerald Brettner-Messler ........................ ...................................... 1419. Summary Heinz Nissel ....... ........................................... 1509.1 Summary of security and Military ................................. Heinz Nissel, Daniel Welser ........... ...................................... 1533


1. Introduction 32 years ago Deng Xiaoping in China initiated the major reform policy. Thirty years later is China from a developing country on the political periphery to an economic global player who is also slowly moving towards a world power position politically. Until the end of the Cold War, Europe was the focus of world events. Now the political is shifting andeconomic focus on Asia, where with ChinaandIndia two states are located, which aloneand their population has huge potential. Japan has long been one of the world's largest industrial nations. This begs the question of how Chinaasserts its influence in the future and by what intentions the actions of the government are guided. Of essential importance will be how the grandadditional approach to the and Security policy will look like. Will Beijing take a cooperative or a confrontational approach? It will ultimately depend on whether there will be a confrontation scenario with the USA in the Pacific region or whether potentials can be bundled for the benefit of all. But even in the case of cooperation there will be differences and Give faults and even a confrontation would lead toand The close interconnectedness of a globalized world cannot be as comprehensive as in the Cold War. The present study discusses the parameters of development Chinas andtries approaches to answer the question about the grandto convey the tendencies of further development. It sees itself as an overview of the situation, which briefly summarizes the essential scenarios and Reflects trends. The study is structured according to subject areas that are relevant for the further way Chinas are crucial. First, an overview of the external and security policy developments after the Second World War given in order to show the prerequisites of current politics. The security environment is then dealt with and the armament projects of the People's Liberation Army are shown. Given the increasing amounts of money available to the army, a factor that deserves due attention, the army is one of the essential5

Institutions of the People's Republic. Another important point in view of the current crisis is economic development and the answers Chinas on the challenges, after all, the “Wirtschaftswandhe “main legitimation for the sole rule of the Communist Party. In the most populous country in the world with its well-known one-child policy, demography is a factor that affects the and long-term development must not be ignored and A separate chapter is therefore dedicated to this, dealing with the various aspects of population development. The final topic is the social one and Social situation - it is a yardstick for internal stability Chinas, which is a prerequisite for developing power to the outside world. Although the subject areas mentioned are dealt with separately for the sake of clarity, they must be seen in an internal context. Economic success is a prerequisite for social stability on the one hand, and for the constantly growing defense budget on the other. The economy also influences foreign policy decisions - for example in the context of energy supply when it comes to concluding contracts with oil states. The demographic development also has an impact on internal stability - for example in connection with the question of whether the natural resources have sufficient livelihoods in view of environmental pollutionandlocations for the people 6

2. Development of security policy ChinasGerald Brettner-Messler and in terms of security policy represented the end of the Second World War China With the end of the Japanese occupation over large parts of the country, the question of power between the Communist Party led by Mao Tse-tong could now be resolved and the kuomintang led by Chiang Kai-Shek. The civil war ended with the victory of the communists and the establishment of the People's Republic China 1949. The Kuomintang government and their followers withdrew to the island of Taiwan. That was China divided; the government in Taiwan remained the only legitimate representation internationally for the time being Chinas recognizedand thus also took the permanent seat on the UN Security Council. With the beginning of the Cold War, China increasingly drawn into the logic of this confrontation. Both new great powers USA and The USSR initially acted cautiously with regard to developments in China. The USA was particularly interested in economic relations and looked for a stabilizing factor in the region. A democratic development was therefore in their spirit - certainly with a government participation of the communists. The Kuomintang government was supported politically, but not militarily, in attempts to mediate between the civil war parties. The US mediation attempts ultimately failed because of the incompatible positions of the two groups. The Soviets, in turn, wanted to restore their influence in the Far East. At first they played a double game because they doubted the communists' ability to assert themselves. With their increasing success, Moscow also leaned more and more in their direction and supplied weapons. In front of the backgroundand In view of the deteriorating relations between the superpowers, the US finally supported the Kuomintang government financially. The communist victory came as a shock because it was seen primarily as a success of Stalin. Chinawas not seen as a separate actor, but in connection with Moscow. In 1950 the last representatives of the USA7

withdrawn from the mainland. From then on, the policy of containment also applied to China. 1Moscow was initially skeptical about the success of its ideological ally Mao. With its success, however, the support from the USSR began. The “leaning towards one side” finally carried out by Mao was ideologically logical. The victory of the communists led to the formalization of the relationship by the one signed in 1950 and 30-year contract for Freandshank, alliance and mutual support. The treaty was comprehensive, based on a common ideological groupandlocation and designed for cooperation in defense, foreignandEconomic policy. This was the external and Security phase of Sino-Soviet cooperation initiated. The contract was for China also of interest because Mao was still thinking of a military recapture of Taiwan at the time. From this perspective, the Soviet-Chinese agreement was threatening, but the United States continued to behave in a defensive manner and did not take any military action. It was not until the Korean War that the two communist states were ready to use violence. The US intervention in this war was a problem for the Chinese because of the possibility of a deployment ChinasBorder was seen. The US changed its position now andKorea and Taiwan were placed under military protection. The US goal with Taiwan was defensive; The communists' takeover of power on the island was to be prevented. In 1954, Beijing took military measures for the first time against Taiwan (again in 1958; both times the US was considering the use of nuclear weapons). The result of the fruitless attempt was the MutualDefense Treaty of 1954 between the USA and Taiwan. With this contract the cooperation for defense against attacks became and1 Irlenkaeuser, Jan C .: Enclosure or cooperation. The American Chinapolitics under Clinton and Bush, Frankfurt a. M. 2005, 60-652 Braddick, C.W .: Japan and the Sino-Soviet Alliance, 1950-1964. In the Shadow of theMonolith, Basingstoke 2004, 18

"Communist subversive activities" defined from the outside andFurthermore, that every armed attack on the national territory of the other is a threat to their own security and of peace. That was the beginning of the political and US military guarantee for Taiwan. 3 In the 1950s, this happened China in the role of junior partner of the USSR. It benefited from technical support from the USSR; too close a bond was not wanted by either side. Chinawas treated less favorably than the Eastern European countries, but also did not join the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. However, military integration was proposed at the end of the 1950s. During this time the first cracks in relations appeared: the de-Stalinization met with Chinese criticism because it was perceived as a threat to the legitimacy of communist rule, the uprising in Hungary being seen as evidence of this. Another point was the "great leap forward" criticized by the Soviet Union. On the one hand, internal critics in China Rifle aid provided, on the other hand, other states were of the model Chinas attracted (Albania). The confrontation with Taiwan in 1958 and Khrushchev's efforts to relax resulted in Moscow ceasing to support China's nuclear ambitions. Generally tried China to step out of the shadow of Moscow and to gain independent contours. In the 1960s, border disputes arose. Criticized in 1962China the withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba. The Brezhnev doctrine of the “limited sovereignty” of socialist states and the related intervention in Czechoslovakia contributed to further alienation. In 1969 the Soviet experts were finally out China deducted. The relationship had thus bottomed out. Only in the last years of the existence of the USSR did relations improveChina by the troop reduction in Mongolia and on the common border, the withdrawal of the Soviets from Afghanistan and den3 Irlenkaeuser, 68 f.9

Vietnam withdraws from Cambodia. Gorbachev's reform policy displeased Deng Xiaoping, the "strong man" ChinaThe break coincided with the alienation from the USSR India. Relationships were still intact in the mid-1950s. China was included in the decolonization movementanden, in the India played a leading role under Prime Minister Nehru. Nehru saw China as an anti-imperialist power which, in his view, should live in peace with the other aligned powers. Nehru had at the time China Left Tibet without resistance. In accordance with the principle of peaceful coexistence, Nehru granted the Dalai Lhama after his escape in 1959 in India Exile, but did not allow government in exile. In April 1961 there were border negotiations between Nehru and Prime Minister Chou Enlai. When the Sino-Indian treaty was concluded in 1954, the common border was not binding. Chinawanted the Karakorum Strait against acceptance of the McMahon Line andAksai Chin. The road was for China important because they make the connectionChinas secured with the western provinces. As a democratically elected politician, Nehru could not simply accept an area swap. This attitude Indias on the Tibet question was, however, by China as interference in internal affairs and seen as evidence of Indian ambitions in Tibet. The border incidents increased. Eventually it continued China 1962 his armed forces - the moment was greatand favorable to the Cuba crisis. Beijing was able to enforce its territorial demands andIndia demonstrate his superiority. The consequence was that India armament began after Nehru had previously paid little attention to this area. That in turn called Pakistan on the scene, which saw the enforcement of its sovereignty over Kashmir dwindle. After one of Pakistan's first border crossings in 1965 was answered only with a request for mediation by Great Britain, the Pakistani leadership under Ayub Khan decided to launch a military strike that same year. India resisted and conducted relief strikes on Pakistani territory. The war ended with no result for either side. Follow the lack of support for Pakistan through10

the US was a significant deterioration in the ratio anda stronger turn to China. 4Pakistan was the first Muslim country to adopt the VR China had recognized. Strategic and Political considerations on the Pakistani side led to the rapprochement between the two states. Pakistan refused to intervene at the UN General Assembly in 1951 Chinas in the Korean War to support a motion by means of it China would have been declared an aggressor. The good relationships too China expressed themselves, among other things, in the construction of Karakorum Street, which opened in 1978 and has military significance as it is used to transport military goods from the Pakistani port of Karachi by land China made possible (so care is taken that light tanks can cross the bridges; military stations are used for security). But Pakistan has also entered into alliances with the US to provide support against India to win. 1962 the war broke out between ChinaandIndia off, the one with a unilateral truce on the part Chinas and a Chinese offer to negotiate ended. The negotiations between Indiaand Pakistan over Kashmir, however, was of no avail. Chinaand Pakistan - both now through a territorial conflict with India verbanden - moved closer together. In 1963, an agreement on the common state border was concluded; part of Kashmir was attached to Pakistan China Pakistan was relieved of U.S. support for India disappointed and sought to steer an independent course. Put in the Pakistani-Indian War of 1965 ChinaIndia two ultimatums, which ultimately prevented an attack on East Pakistan. China subsequently upgraded Pakistan militarily. In 1966, an armaments agreement was signed for $ 120 million. In 1970, 25% of Pakistani tanks were made and 33% of the air fleet China. Helped in the Indo-Pakistani War in 1971 China to make up for losses in military equipment. As a result, the Chinese also made industrial facilities available that Pakistan could use for armaments. The arms deliveries to Pakistan were very extensive and4 Rothermand, Dietmar: history Indiasee From the Middle Ages to the Present, Munich 2002, 64-6711

grew with the Chinese possibilities. So went between 1970and 1986 almost 1000 tanks to Pakistan. 5China began to strengthen relationships with other Asians andto seek African states. One sizeandposition had already been laid at the Bandung Conference in 1955. China had Grandfor its relations with non-communist states declared: mutual respect for sovereignty and Integrity, mutual renunciation of violence, mutual non-interference in internal affairs, peaceful coexistence. Reinforced from around 1964 Chinahis "anti-imperialist" policy and supported "national liberation movements" (North Vietnam), but also an attempted communist overthrow in Indonesia. China defined itself as a third world state and wanted to form an alliance with their countries. At the same time, there was the possibility of improved relations with the USA, China The invasion of the ČSSR in 1968 and The increased efforts of the Soviet Union to control the seas also sparked fears in Beijing about Soviet policy. China was therefore interested in normalizing relations with the USA between 1954 and 1970 only at the level of ambassadorial talks in Geneva and Warsaw had passed. The visits of National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger in 1971 andby President Nixon in 1972 brought the breakthrough. At the beginning of the seventies diplomatic relations were established with Italy, Canada, Germany and Japan added. After its seat in the UN was transferred to the PR in 1971, Beijing sought to integrate it into the international community. However, full normalization of relations with the United States was still a long way off, as the Taiwan problem had not yet been resolved. Finally, the United States terminated the 1954 Defense Treaty and broke off diplomatic relations with Taiwan and zogen5 Chaudhri, Mohammad Ahsen: Strategic and Military Dimensions in Pakistan-ChinaRelations, in: Ali, Mehrunnisa (ed.): Readings in Pakistan Foreign Policy 1971-1998, Oxford 2001, 318, 321-32412

their troops back. Thus 1979 the diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing, which is now also used by the USA as a legitimate representation Chinas was recognized, but the US did not completely end support for ally Taiwan. US-Taiwanese relations have been based on the Taiwan Relations Act since 1979. It states that peace and Stability in the region in terms of politics and security and economic interests of the USA. In the direction of Beijing, the framework for the desired reunification was defined: The recognition of the VR China be verb with expectationanden that Taiwan's future will be decided by peaceful means; if other means were used, including an embargo or boycott, it would be seen as a threat to peace and Security should be considered. The US decided to equip Taiwan for defense and to maintain one's own capacities in order to be able to ward off any use of force or other coercion that would endanger security. 6The relationships between Chinaand Japan were after 1945 because of Japan's rule over parts Chinas burdened in the years 1931-1945, whereby the acts of violence committed in particular had a lasting negative effect on the Chinese attitude towards the neighbor The close relationship between Japan and the USA, which is a rapprochement with, had an immediate effect China excluded as long as it was opposed to the United States. 1951 became the American-Japanese securityandFridayandAgreement signed, which was renewed in 1960. Trade relations between Chinaand Japan began to develop as early as the 1950s, despite the political divide. From 1966 on it was Japan Chinas most important trading partner. 7 The division between Chinaand the Soviet Union and the improvement in US-China relations also enabled relations with Japan to normalize. Sizeand For China, one such6 Irlenkaeuser, 76-867 Japan's role in China's economic reforms, http://news.xinhuanet.com, 7.1.200913

To force normalization policy was also to have too close relations between Japan and to prevent the USSR. 8 In 1972 diplomatic relations were established. Japan recognized the government in Beijing as legitimate and also that Taiwan is part ofChina is. On the same turn has China Japan waived war reparations. 1978 the Treaty of Peace and Fridayandbetween the two states. An anti-hegemony clause was integrated into this treaty, as was already the case in the 1972 agreement, according to which both sides undertake not to seek hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region (and also in no other region) and to oppose attempts by other states to establish one. 9 On this political Grandeconomic relations - particularly relevant here are the Japanese investments in China - be developed intensively, whereby Japan makes an important contribution to the rapid economic upward development Chinas performed and In terms of security policy, the end of the Soviet Union also brought Chinaa relief, since the rigid fronts broke open. The situation in East Asia was reorganized. Japan began to emancipate itself from the USA and To take on a more independent role. Appropriate efforts were therefore made in the defense sector and the Japanese armed forces deployed abroad for the first time. These efforts reached a preliminary climax in 2009, when the new liberal-democratic government suspended plans to relocate the US base to Okinawa. The behavior of Japan raised the suspicion that US troops should leave the country in the first place. That would have serious effects on the security situation in East Asia, since the US contingent in Japan includes 14,200 soldiers - strategically favorable8 Clados, Miriam: Chinaand Japan: historical, economic and strategic relationships, especially after the end of the Cold War, http: //www.chinafokus.de, June 1, 20109 Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Japan and the People’s Republic of China, August 12, 1978, http://www.mofa.go.jp, 7.1.200914

between Taiwan and Korea positioned. 10 However, the US armed forces are still the backbone of Japanese security that it will not be able to do without in the foreseeable future - at least not the forces that defend Japan. Relations between Chinaand Japan has been shaped primarily by economic issues over the past twenty years. Japan as world economic power number two has always been a major factor in the economic reform course that was needed China but the connection to a modern industrial nation. Conversely, offers ChinaJapan a huge investment and Sales market and is today Japan's most important trading partner. In front of the historical backgroundand A traditional rivalry wins the competitive relationship with the politicaland militarily growing stronger China increasingly to contours. Especially on the oil and Gas markets both appear as bidders, as Japan almost completely, but also China depends on imports. The dispute over territorial sovereignty over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands, in whose waters rich underwater oil deposits are expected, is also the only specific point of dispute between the neighbors.China could overtake Japan economically in 2010 - the island nation is struggling with major economic problems. The power structure in East Asia could shift further. A loss of importance for Japan could lead to both the USA and Japan increasing their foreign policy China align and both alliance loses significance. That is undoubtedly in the interest Chinas: The solution of the Taiwan question in the interests of Beijing would move closer if Japan moved away from the common position with the USA. In 2005 the USA had and Japan to outrage Chinas declared security on Taiwan Road to be a matter of mutual interest. For China the future orientation of the Japanese foreign and Security policy can therefore be of great weight. In Japan there is currently a discussion about whether to consolidate the alliance with the USA and on this basis a dominant position in the integration of Asia should strive for, so China or the USA at a distance10 Future of Okinawa base strains U.S.-Japanese alliance, http: //www.washingtonpost.com, 01/24/201015

hold and the work on an East Asian Community in the foregroundand should provide. China But one way or another it will play a role. The question is whether, with such an integration of Asia, Japan or Japan Chinawill take the leading position. China the current close relationship with the neighbor, which is maintained through numerous contacts at different levels, is maintained in its own interest. 11This also applies to relations with the USA. As with Japan was the interest Chinas in the USA with the beginning of the reform policy clearly dominated by the economy. To gain technological connectionand to supply the Americans with cheap products to keep up with the economic uptrend ChinaThe aim was to give s continued momentum. Economic success has always been a factor in security policy, and it gives the huge country a stability. This applies both internally and externally, since business partners avoid confrontations with one another if this is to their disadvantage. It worked out, the economies of the USA andChinas are today to the closest verbandenand Both states are therefore demonstratively trying to work together. However, differences persist - as a result of theanddemocratic political system and of growing importanceChinas on the international stage, where it is appearing more and more self-confidentlyand the right to have a say and Co-determination calls for a lasting impression in the USA and the EU left the defeat of the democracy movement in 1989. While in Europeand Russia's communist dictatorships collapsed, the Chinese leadership successfully cracked down on the demonstrators andsmashed the protest. Demands for internal reforms were suppressed with brutal violence. The relationship with the USA and Europe was also significantly clouded as a result. An EU arms embargo is bis today upright. The position of the communist leadership has not changed in Beijing, however. The position of the communist leadership is that reforms should be self-initiated - demands from dissidents are answered with reprisals. Compliance with the11China still sober despite economic rise, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn, 1.2.201016

Human rights is a point of constant criticism from Western states ChinaFrom Beijing's point of view, the USA can only be trusted to a limited extent. The intervention of the NATO countries in Kosovo was a clear warning and the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in the course of the air raids on Yugoslavia in 1999. With Tibet and Xinjiang belong toChina also provinces with secessionist indigenous people groups - in Xinjiang, however, these forces have a clear Islamist connotation, which has been the case since 09 /11 Sizeand for the cooperation between the USA andChina in the fight against Islamist terror. In the case of the bombed embassy, ​​one did not want to believe in coincidence, one suspected a targeted action. The collision of a Chinese plane with a US reconnaissance plane in 2001 led to the next conflict. Beijing overplayed all of these disputes because good (economic) relations were more important. 12This coincides with DengXiaoping's "strategy of 24 characters", the one that is serene and Postulates calm demeanor until the right moment for action is reached. China has continuously increased the defense budget by double digits over the past twenty years and wants to bring its armed forces to the most modern level by 2050. This includes, above all, the international applicability - so the navy should be seaworthy and The air force will be transformed from an instrument of territorial defense into an integrated armed service. A security policy challenge currently facing the USA and Japan andChina unites is the North Korean nuclear program. Chinahas been a traditional ally of its communist neighbors for 60 years, but has no interest in a nuclear power North Korea whose potential could fuel armament in Asia - in such a case Japan would inevitably be the next state to seek possession of such weapons. In the interests of stability in its neighborhood, regime change is not an option for Beijing either. It is therefore endeavoring to exert pressure in well-balanced doses, but refuses to accept sanctions which it believes go too far. China12 Cohen, Warren I .: China and the West in Historical Perspective, in: Footnotes, Vol. 13, No 6, April 2008, http://www.fpri.org, 1.6.201017

performs ongrand important intermediary services of his contacts and is a key power in resolving the conflict with North Korea. Takes a comparable stance China on the issue of the nuclear dispute with Iran. Beijing does not want to offend the important energy suppliers, but neither does it want to expose itself to accusations of supporting the breach of international agreements. The main foreign policy concern is the reintegration of Taiwan into the Chinese state association. In all international relations, Beijing therefore insists on the recognition of theChina-Principle - that means there is only one state China, which also includes the island of Taiwan. The political one and US military protection for Taiwan is a constant point of conflict with the US. The decision on a long-planned delivery of armaments such as Black Hawk helicopters, the Patriot missile defense system, and mine clearance ships andCommunication media put a heavy strain on relationships in 2010. Chinahas frozen all military exchanges and threatened with sanctions. 13 Total is China has become clearly more visible in world events over the years. The good export business has brought a lot of money into the country, which is now used for global investments. Has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council China to have a say in international issues and can do this with increasing certainty. The US requires China to be a “responsible participant” in international relations. How exactly China will assume his responsibility can be seen in contours: the further course will be determined by "Realpolitik" and to national interests Chinaorientate. This will only partially correlate with what the West understands by "responsibility" or what corresponds to its interests. sells weapons to Taiwan, slightly China, http: //www.washingtonpost.com, January 30, 2010; Sanctions 'could hurt aviation industry', http://www.chinadaily.com.cn.2.2.201018

3. The development of security andDefense policy ChinasDaniel Welser The Chinese armed forces are confronted with a number of challenges in East Asia, but recently also increasingly in an international context. This is reflected in appropriate armament projects so that the respective tasks can also be carried out in the best possible way. The main task is to maintain sovereignty and unit Chinas, which is why special attention is paid to Taiwan, the breakaway province from Beijing's point of view. Beijing wants to prevent a possible secession of the island militarily if necessary. There are also strategic considerations behind this: Taiwan is of central importance for the control of the "first chain of islands" that closes off the East and South China Seas - the two seas are connected by the Strait of Taiwananden. Since the US is a "protecting power" Taiwan, the relationship becomes Chinas to the USA especially determined by this question. As a state bordering the Pacific with troops deployed in East Asia, the USA is also the focus of all Beijing’s military planning. Russia andChinacombine common strategic interests and the import of Russian armaments. Africa, in turn, imports Chinese weapons andChina the raw materials needed for its economy from Africa. All these interests want China secure militarily. For this purpose, the People's Liberation Army is to be brought up to date in the next 40 years. and Security Relations 3.1.1 Taiwan The modernization of the Chinese army must be viewed in the context of Sino-Taiwanese relations. As part of theChina-Policy is Beijing's restoration of sovereignty over the island. If this is also the main concern, then the sphere of interest should also be Chinas to be expanded at sea to 19

the Lines of Communication (LoC) and Lines of Transportation (LoT) secure those for supplies Chinas are vital, especially from an energy policy perspective. The election of Ma Yingjeou as President of Taiwan created a thaw in mainland relations and Island. Chinas President Hu Jintao spoke out in favor of stabilizing relations in December 2008. After the talks had been suspended for nine years, improvements were made relatively quickly in June 2008, such as the resumption of direct flight connections and shipping routes and of postal traffic, a message, after which China could reduce the 1,300 short-range missiles (SRBM) aimed at Taiwan have not yet come true. 14 The first Taiwanese Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) - published in March 2009 - shows the military's discomfort with confidence-building measures and a possible peace agreement with China. The Taiwanese armed forces continue to insist on the procurement of modern weapons systems. China must withdraw the short-range missiles aimed at Taiwan and withdraw the threat of armed violence against Taiwan, otherwise Taiwan should not change anything about its armament. The QDR also calls for the military command to be reduced to three, and troops to be reduced from 275,000 to 215,000 men and On the other hand, modern weapons such as submarines, missiles, and fighter planes are being used at the same time and C4ISR 15 systems are required. The purchase of various rocket launchers and supply helicopters is also planned and UAV 16s.The Navy demands big ones andmedium warships, missile patrol boats, airborne anti-ship missiles, mine sweepers and Minesweeper helicopter. The USA will sell UH-60 BlackHawk helicopters and eight submarines promised in 2001 and Destroyers with Aegis systems required. 17 Due to the planned reduction of the 14th China Suggests Mil-to-Mil With Taiwan, Defense News, January 12, 2009, p. 415 C4ISR: Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance16 UAV: ​​Unmanned Aerial Vehicle17 Taiwan's QDR Reveals Rift, Defense News, March 23, 2009 , P. 120

Taiwanese defense budget by 6% (from $ 9.5 billion to $ 8.9 billion) should leave room for new purchases and however, the modernization of the military will be tight. The reduced budget can also be seen as an attempt to approach China be interpreted. 18Taiwan is already grappling with a military imbalance. Since 2006, it has requested 66 F-16C / D Block 50/52 combat aircraft from the USA to replace the aging F-5E / F Tigers. The Mirage 2000-5D / E are likely to be retired due to high maintenance costs. Without the F-16, the Taiwanese Air Force would have to disband one or two fighter wings. The 390 Taiwanese fighter aircraft, including 146 F-16A / B Block 20, 128 F-CK-1 IDF, 56 Mirage 2000-5 and 60 F-5s, 330 fighter planes are in direct range on the Chinese side. The Chinese Air Force has a total of 1,655 combat aircraft. In general, the acquisition of the F-16C / D, which could be delivered around three to four years after the contract was signed, is seen as a bridge solution up to the acquisition of vertical take-off (VSTOL 19) aircraft. In the event of an attack, China destroy a large part of the Taiwanese airstrips with the missiles aimed at Taiwan and thus rendering conventional aircraft unusable. Taiwan already has the procurement of reconditioned AV-8 VSTOL Harrier and F-35BVSTOL decided, whereby the F-35B could not be procured for about ten years. The Air Force's troop reduction from 6,000 to 5,000 soldiers resulted in the loss of one or two fighter wings. Taiwan could lose a sixth of its air force. The threat posed by Chinese short-range missiles aimed at Taiwan has been responded to with the production of Hsiung Feng (HF) -2E cruise missiles. These have a range of 600 km, an 800 km variant is in development. These are the first missiles that can hit mainland China. Die USA18 Taiwan Defense Budget Drops 6%, Defense News, 09/28/2009, p. 2819 VSTOL: Vertical Short Take Off and Landing20 Taiwan Fears Air Power Reduction, Vulnerability to China, Defense News, April 20, 2009, p. 821

tried in 2008 to prevent the program by stopping deliveries of missile parts, but the Harpoon Block II anti-ship missile sold by the USA to Taiwan is said to have the same land attack mode as the HF-2E. Other missile projects include the TienKung-3 air defense missile system and the Hsiung Feng-3 anti-ship missile and the anti-radiation missile Tien Chien-2A. 21 Rand 500 Tien-Kung anti-aircraft missiles are deployed in six locations around Taiwan. With a range of up to 300 kilometers, Taiwan is able to shoot down planes over Chinese soil. The anti-aircraft missile base on Tongyin Island allows Taiwan to monitor two Chinese missile bases with DF-15 missiles aimed at Taiwan. 223.1.2 USA For relations between the USA andChina Taiwan is of paramount importance. The US is like China Averse to secessionist aspirations and Washington represents the in-China-Politics (commitment to a single state China), but supports on Grandposition of the TaiwanRelations Act of 1979 the island politically and military. Additional commitments were made in the 1982 Six Assurances, including a refusal to formally recognize sovereignty ChinaWhat matters about Taiwan. 23 Beijing's ultimate goal is to reintegrate the island into the Chinese state. It relies on the closest possible connection between Taiwan and the mainland by peaceful means. A relaxation on the Taiwan Strait is also affecting US arms deliveries to Taiwan and The role of the United States in the region has been expanded, with voices in Washington calling for greater support for Taiwan to improve relations China - Taiwan requested. So were in November 2008 between Beijing and Taipei negotiated13 contracts, including the end of the 21 Taiwan Continues Cruise Missile Effort, which has existed since 1949, Defense News, March 16, 2009, p. 1622 Taiwan Missile Base Identified Near China, Defense News, February 22nd, 2010, p. 623 Andrea K. Riemer, Chinas strategic repositioning in the geopolitical context (series of publications by the National Defense Academy 14/2005, Vienna 2005), p. 22; P. 98, fn. 3122

Ban on direct entry. Chinaand Taiwan are also discussing military confidence-building measures. The US feared that China could take control of Taiwan's telecommunications and financial institutions. That is why there are proponents of further military support to Taiwan to put the island in a better negotiating position with the mainland. The F-16s, Black Hawks and submarines requested by Taiwan should be delivered and also the new demands for six transport aircraft C-27J Spartan fulfillment. In October 2008, the United States approved a $ 6.4 billion armaments package. On January 29, 2010, the US Congress approved parts of this package worth $ 6 billion, including 60 UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters for $ 3.1 billion, 114 PAC-3 missiles for $ 2.81 billion, 60 Multifunctional Information Distribution Systems (MIDS 25) valued at $ 340 million, two refurbished Osprey-class minesweepers for $ 105 million, 12 Harpoon training missiles for $ 37 millionand Communication systems for Taiwan's Po Sheng program. The PAC-3 missiles are supported by three AN / MPQ-65 radar systems. The missile defense systems are said to be in central Taiwanand to be positioned in the south of the island to oppose those of China to protect against short-range missiles aimed at Taiwan. 26 The package does not include the design and Feasibility study for diesel powered submarines 27 and the F-16 fighter aircraft, with the US government explicitly keeping the option to sell the F-16 at a later date open. 28 According to a former Taiwan Defense Minister China However, it does not depend on the military submission of Taiwan, but could be economic, 24 In U.S., Calls for a Taiwan Policy Review, Defense News, 11.05.2009, S. 1925 MIDS: Multifunctional Information Distribution System26 http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4478455&c=ASI&s=AIR (accessed on April 27, 2010) 27 ibid28http: //www.nytimes.com/ 2010/01/30 / world / asia / 30arms.html? Scp = 1 & sq = taiwan% 20arms% 20deal & st = cse (accessed on April 27, 2010) 23

political and use cultural means to incorporate Taiwan into the People's Republic. 29 The US is also faced with the question of whether it is China with the sale of F-16s to Taiwan. Since Taiwan is still dependent on the aircraft, but these are only being produced to a lesser extent in favor of the F-35, Taiwan could shift its demands from the F-16 to the F-35. 30A report from the Defense Intelligence Agency confirmed the dwindling impact of the Taiwanese Air Force. In the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2010, the Pentagon presented its new strategy for dealing with anti-access strategies. Navy and the U.S. Airforce, the expansion of long-range strike capability, the increased use of space, more robust C4ISR capabilities andcalled the elimination of opposing networks. The increased use of armed forces abroad is also being considered. 32 ThoughChina was not explicitly mentioned as the addressee, the strategy appears specifically China 3.1.3 Russia Relations between Chinaand Russia can certainly be described as ambivalent. The two states are in opposition to a global anti-missile defense system, the militarization of space and of North Korea's nuclear programs and of Iran largely agreed. Differences resulted from the unlicensed replica of the Russian Su-27SK fighter jet China. 1995 was between Russia andChina A contract worth 2.5 billion dollars was signed for the production license for 200 Su-27SKs. The contract included equipping the jet with Russian engines, radar and Avionics. In 2006 the Treaty of Russia29 China Suggests Mil-to-Mil With Taiwan, Defense News, January 12, 2009, p. 430 U.S.-Taiwan Meeting Ends on F-16 Question, Defense News, October 5, 2009, p. 6031 U.S. Intelligence Report on Taiwan Air Power Released, Defense News, 02/22/2010, p. 632 http://www.defense.gov/qdr/images/QDR_as_of_12Feb10_1000.pdf, pp. 32-34 (accessed on April 27, 2010) 24

terminated after it was discovered that China his own jet variant, the J-11B, developed with Chinese avionics. Path engineering difficulties will be dealt with in the J-11B, however, still uses the Russian AL-31F engine. To China has fixed the contract for Su-33 fighter jets, which it needs for its aircraft carrier project, it is likely to be more cautious when it comes to replicating Russian technology. Russia fears that its own developments will be pushed out of the market by cheaper Chinese copies. 33 Because of these security concerns, Moscow is very careful not to produce technologies, but only finished products China for sale. 34 Russia has about India, but not Chinawho have favourited Su-30Mk1 and the MiG-35 is available for purchase, which means caution in trade relationships China made clear. On the other hand, should China Il-76 transport aircraft and Il-78 tanker aircraft received from Russiaand also want nuclear submarines, MiG-31 interceptors, Tu-22M backfire C-bombers and Buy medium-range supersonic missiles for use against ships. This illustrates Russia's dependence on arms exports and shows how Russian security interests must be weighed against economic interests. 353.1.4 Africa In addition to its wealth of raw materials, Africa is also becoming increasingly important as a potential buyer of military goods China. At the Africa Aerospace and Defense Exhibition 2008, NORINCO presented, among other things, HJ-8 anti-tank missiles, the MBT-2000 main battle tank, LD2000 air defense systems, the PLZ45-155 self-propelled gun and long-range multiple rocket launcher systems AR2300mm (MLRS). CPMIEC provided the HQ-9 (FD-2000) surface-to-air missile system and the A100 300mm MLRS rocket launcher and WS-2 and the anti-ship missile C-701 and C-704. China When it comes to the export of armaments, preference is given to countries rich in raw materials, which can afford expensive armaments such as combat aircraft. With 33 Russia admits China Illegaly Copied Plane, Defense News, February 16, 2009, p. 434 The Limits of Chinese-Russian Partnership, Survival vol. 51, no. 3, p. 11435 Limits of Chinese-Russian Partnership, p. 11525

Zimbabwe and Nigeria is in negotiations over the FC-1 / JF-17 fighter aircraft. 36 China also tries on infrastructure projects andUN peacekeeping operations in Africa to gain influence. As of November 2008, 1,949 soldiers were involved in 18 UN peace missions. Among them were in Africa: • 175 pioneers and 43 medical soldiers in the Congo (UNMONUC) • 275 pioneers, 240 transport soldiers and 43 medical soldiers in Liberia (UNMIL) • 275 pioneers, 100 transport soldiers and 60 medical soldiers in Sudan (UNMIS) • 275 pioneers and 60 medical soldiers in Lebanon (UNIFIL) • 315 pioneers as part of the hybrid operation of the African Union and The UN in Darfur (UNAMID) also had China 208 police officers for peacekeeping in Liberia, Kosovo, Haiti, Sudan and East Timor in action. 37 3.2 Priorities of the military 3.2.1 Budget The of China White Paper on National Defense 2008 reveals the People's Liberation Army budget for the first time since 1978. According to the White Paper, military spending increased from 16.78 billion yuan to 355.49 billion yuan between 1978 and 2007. Western observers, however, criticize that these figures are too deep. Spending on the military budget increased annually by 14.5% annually from 1988 to 1997, while GDP grew by 20.7% annually. From 1998 to 2007 this ratio reversed to 15.9% military budget to 12.5% ​​GDP. 38 Two thirds of the military budget should go to the36 China Comes To Africa, Defense News, 02/09/2009, p.937 http://www.china.org.cn/government/central_government/2009-01/20/content_17155577_15.htm (accessed on October 30, 2009) 38 China Outlines 30 Years of Defense Spending, Defense News, January 26, 2009, p. 426

Personnel, training and Maintenance will be issued. The increased expenses result from the increase in salary, the increased prices for various goods and the arming of the armed forces. 393.2.2 ArmyChina would like to bring its armed forces up to the state of the information age in three stages by 2050, i.e. equip them with modern technology. By 2010 the creation of the Grandwere planned, in 2020 "great progress" is to be achieved and The process will be completed by 2050. 40 The main focus in modernizing the Army is on building a tactical missile capacity, anti-aircraft missiles and Special commands. Transregional mobility should have already been achieved. The skills for coordinated ground-to-air maneuvers, long-range maneuvers, rapid attacks and Special operations are to be increased. In the construction of new weapon systems, the emphasis has been placed on the integration of information systems in weapon platforms, new main battle tanks, heavy amphibious vehicles and light mechanized vehicles. 41By the fact that China relies on foreign aid in the development of advanced weapons, the implementation of modernization of the army suffers. The focus is on conducting short, high-intensity wars on the border, but also far away from one's own territory, against technically well-armed opponents such as the USA. Although progress has been made in joint operations, performance has yet to improve as China The army not only in classic wars, but also in areas such as combating terrorism, maintaining internal stability, crisis management, and peacekeeping missions and Use disease control 39 http://www.china.org.cn/government/central_government/2009-01/20/content_17155577_14.htm (accessed on October 30, 2009) 40 http://www.china.org.cn/government/central_government /2009-01/20/content_17155577_4.htm (accessed on October 30, 2009) 41 http://www.china.org.cn/government/central_government/2009-01/20/content_17155577_6.htm (accessed on October 30, 2009) 27

want. 42 All of this indicates that the armed forces are primarily geared towards maintaining domestic security (this includes Taiwan). 43 Attaches particular importance China also on the area C4ISR. The weak points in your own systems should be ironed out and the hostile ones are destroyed. In this respect, the development of agricultural andSpace-based C4ISR systems are important. 443.2.3 Air Force The greatest deficits in terms of modernization are with the Air Force. It is intended to move from territorial air defense to offensiveandDefensive operations are rearranged equally, capacities for precision strikes against ground and Develop long-range aerial targets and Carry out missions to project strategic power. 45 Above all, this requires educational andTanker planes. The US arms embargo and EU prevents such procurements. 46 Voices have been heard in the EU to lift this embargo. Especially Spain and France are in favor of the repeal, while Great Britain is strictly against it. 47 At the Singapore Airshow it was announced that the new Chinese combat helicopter Harbin Z9WE is to be equipped with French engines. Forty-eight advances have been made in the development of UAVs. At the Singapore Airshow Chinatwo UAV models offered for export. 4942 China Outlines 30 Years of Defense Spending, p. 443 Brune, Sophie-Charlotte, Lange, Sascha, Oertel, Janka, Chinas military development. modernization and Internationalization of the Armed Forces (Berlin 2009), p. 1244 Chinese Continue Modernization Push, Defense News, April 20, 2009, p. 1245 http://www.china.org.cn/government/central_government/2009-01/20/content_17155577_8.htm (accessed on October 30, 2009) 46 Chinas Military Development, p. 647 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/da31e8fc-0e8d-11df-bd79-00144feabdc0.html (accessed on February 17, 2010) 48 http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4489192&c=FEA&s=CVS (accessed on April 27, 2010) 49 http: //www.defensenews. com / story.php? i = 4484974 & c = ASI & s = TOP (accessed on April 27, 2010) 28

3.2.4 Navy According to a report by the U.S. Navy, the Chinese Navy consists of 27 destroyers, 48 ​​frigates, more than 70 patrol boats, 55 amphibious vehicles, 40 mine ships and 50 supply ships. The report goes from the development of a Chinese aircraft carrier to 2012 and possible further sponsors by 2020. Furthermore, the development of advanced sea-based air defense weapons and Anti-ship missiles highlighted. 50 The Chinese submarine fleet is numbered with 62 boats. There are three nuclear-powered submarines with ballistic missiles and six nuclear-powered attack submarines and 53 diesel powered attack submarines. Between 2020 and In 2025, the size of the fleet is expected to grow to 75 submarines. Type 095 nuclear-powered attack submarines are scheduled to enter service in 2015. Two of the three nuclear-powered submarines equipped with ballistic missiles are Jin-class and are equipped to transport 12 JL-2 ballistic missiles. The JL-2 has a range of 7,200 kilometers China thus a reliable second strike ability. According to the U.S. Navy, the Chinese submarines are very easy to track down due to their high noise level, which means that this second strike capability is more likely against Russia andIndia should judge. They do not have instant submarine tracking systems like the US. 51 The Navy is supposed to act as a strategic deterrent andstrategic counter-attacks are modernized. The focus is therefore on the ability to carry out offshore operations. The essential prerequisites have already been created: shipyards with the appropriate capacities. We are currently manufacturing new submarines, destroyers, frigates and Aircraft worked. The submarine forces also have nuclear capabilities. Neue50 http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4452407&c=POL&s=TOP (accessed on April 27, 2010) 51 http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4396071 (accessed on April 27, 2010) 29

Missile destroyers were put into service. 52 Although the conventional navy has been consistently upgraded and amphibious skills are still limited. This is particularly interesting with regard to Taiwan, as Beijing threatens to use the army should it declare its independence. The Chinese Armed Forces can currently only land one division in Taiwan. Currently working China in the development of an air-cushion vehicle, which was sold to the Landing Craft, Air Cushioned (LCAC) of the US Navy and is based on the Russian Zubr class LCAC. 53 However, since there are no rapid intervention forces stationed in the geographical vicinity of Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army is unlikely to be offensive against the island. 543.2.5 Missile technology The development of Chinese missile technology is dominated by the anti-access strategy with which China especially wants to reduce the clout of the US Navy in the Pacific. Global precision strikes are to be made possible in four steps by 2025. An anti-ship missile (ASBM 55) is to be launched on Grandlocation of the DF-21D with a range of up to 2,000 km. The range should then be 3,000 km by 2015 and 8,000 km by 2020 and be expanded for global use by 2025. 56 On January 12, 2010, the third anniversary of the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test, China successfully tested a missile defense system according to its own statements. China himself described the test as "defensive" and "Not directed against another country". 57 A variant of the surface-to-air missile HQ-19 was presumably used, the 52 http://www.china.org.cn/government/central_government/2009-01/20/content_17155577_7.htm (accessed on October 30, 2009); Chinas military development, pp. 12 f.53 China’S Gator Navy Makes Marginal Strides, Defense News, January 12, 2009, p. 1254 Chinas military development, p. 1155 ASBM: Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile 56 China Anti-Ship Advances Said To Threaten U.S. Pacific Clout, Defense News, September 21, 2009, p. 2257 http://www.china-un.org/eng/fyrth/t651245.htm (accessed on April 27, 2010) 30

Technology is likely to be based on the Russian S-400 Triumf. 58 Since the test was allegedly carried out at an altitude of over 20,000 meters, it could also have been a further development of the Chinese ASAT capability. The missile defense systems tograndunderlying technology is closely related to both ASAT and ASBM technology and serves the continuous further development of the anti-access strategy, which is the main target group in the USA. The missile defense itself, according to experts, is specifically directed against Indiaand Russia. 59China is also working on two new cruise missiles for long ranges, which should be operational by 2019. The Hong Niao-2000 (HN-2000) is said to have a range of 4,000 km and can be deployed from land or submarines. The Qian Xuesen is a cruise missile with a range of 8,000 km. Observations also suggest that the DF-15 is now equipped with MARV 60 warheads. 61 Due to problems with the development of the Chinese orbital station Tiangong 1, the start date was changed from 2010 to 20 at the earliest11 postponed. 6258 http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4460204&c=AIR&s=TOP (accessed on April 27, 2010) 59 ibid. 60 MARV: Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle61 China Parade, Defense News, October 5, 2009, p. 5462 China: Construction of the first space station is delayed, Die Presse, 05.03.2010, p. 731

4 Strategic (Nuclear) Forces of China 63 Thomas Pankratz Objective of the nuclear research that began in the early 1950sChinat was the nuclear monopoly of the two superpowers USA andBreaking USSR. Initially the program for the production of own nuclear weapons was part of the cooperation with the Soviet Union, after the break with the Soviet Union the aim was directed against it. Ignited on October 16, 1964 China his first mission bomb (strength approx. 20 Kt), on June 14, 1967 the first hydrogen bomb (approx. 3 Mt). Since then, 44 nuclear tests (21 underground, 23 above ground) have been carried out, the last one in 1996. Joined in 1992 China the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Chinawas able to join the NPT, like France, as an official nuclear power according to Art. IX of the treaty, since it manufactured a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device before January 1st, 1967 andhad ignited, even if China As recently as 2004 affirmed that it had the smallest nuclear arsenal among the nuclear-weapon states, it was the only one of the five nuclear-weapon states to not only improve its nuclear armed forces in terms of quality (primarily with regard to increasing their range), but also to continuously expand them in terms of numbers. According to Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2008 of the Pentagon hat China its nuclear arsenal increased by approximately 25% since 2006. This should apply to the IndiaEstablishment of new solid-propelled long-range missiles (DF-31, DF-31A) and To be attributed to cruise missiles ("China has the most active ballistic missile program in the world ”64). Even if China disposes of the technological know-how, ballistic missiles with multiple warheads63 In the literature there are sometimes very divergent statements about the strategic forces ChinaFor the following explanations, the SIPRI Yearbook 2009 was used as the primary reference, as it provides the latest data. Shannon N. Kile, Vitaly Fedchenko, Hans M. Kristensen, WorldNuclear Forces, in: SIPRI (ed), SIPRI-Yearbook 2009; Pp. 345-37964 DoD, Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People’s Republic of China2008, p. 232

65, it can be assumed that the Chinese leadership has decided not to develop such systems in the near future. Failure to develop multiple warheads is an important signal to the participating states of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) 66 andthe moratorium on development and for the construction of new nuclear weapons 67, especially when one considers the effectiveness of multiple warheads against missile defense systems. Japan's intensified efforts Indias and Republic of Korea to obtain a missile defense system 68 should be closely monitored in this regard. The Indian anti-missile defense system with the planned ability to defend against ICBMs 69 is likely to face directly against China because neither Pakistan nor North Korea have missiles with intercontinental range. 70 Meanwhile has China repeatedly warned against the development of anti-missile defense systems at the expense of global security. Simultaneously made China also make it clear that it vehemently opposes the development of weapon systems in space, and urged the other states to follow his example. 71 remains unclear in65 For example, with the DF-31A, a missile has already been developed that could be used to transport MIRV warheads. Wendell Minnick, Beijing Rehearsal ShowsOff New Missiles, http: //www.defensenews.com/story.php? I = 4266694 & c = ASI & s = LAN (accessed on 09.09.2009) 6566 China advocates the entry into force of the CTBT, according to its own statements andis working on the implementation of the International Monitoring System (IMS). See: White paper on national defense published, http://www.china.org.cn/government/central_government/2009-01/20/content_17155577_16.htm (accessed on September 10, 2009) 67 Wendell Minnick, China outlines 30 Years of Defense Spending, in: Defense News, January 26, 2009; Pp. 4-5, 868 Ji Ke, The Development of World Military Science and Technology, in: International Strategic Studies, 2nd Issue 2009; S. 4-569 ICBM: Intercontinental Ballistic Missile70 Sandeep Unnithan, DRDO readies shield against Chinese ICBMs, http: //indiatoday.intoday.in/index.php? Option = com_content & task = view & id = 31874 & sectionid = 4 & issueid = 96 & Itemid = 1 (accessed on 09.09.2009) 71 China warns against missile defense systems, http://www.defencetalk.com/chinawarns-against-missile-defense-systems-21131 / (accessed on September 10, 2009) 33

this context, such as the anti-satellite (ASAT) test of January 2007 into the current strategy ChinaThe Chinese nuclear potential should now be between that of Great Britain and Move France. 72 The figures in this regard fluctuate: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) gives a total of 240 warheads to 73, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) assumes 200 to 74. It is unclear how many nuclear warheads are kept in reserve. how large the number of tactical nuclear weapons is in general, decreed at the beginning of 2009 China over four types of ready-to-use ICBMs: the mobile DF-31 and DF-31A with solid fuel propulsion as well as the liquid fuel propelled ones and DF-5A and DF-4 stationed in silos. Furthermore stationed China mobile IRBMs 75 of the type DF-21 as well as the liquid-powered DF-3A. The DF-21 and DF-31A will likely become the DF-3A and Replace the DF-4. A Xia-class submarine (Type 092) with twelve JL-1ASLBMs 76 (medium-range, solid-fuel-propelled) is currently in service. So far hasChina have not yet undertaken patrols on this submarineand it is believed that it is not fully operational. 77 Jin-class submarines (Type 094) are under development. The first boat is finished and it is expected to achieve what is known as Initial Operational Capability 2010. Four more boats are said to be in different phases of construction, so China will ultimately have five Jin-class submarines. The submarine is equipped with twelve JL-2 SLBMs with an estimated range of up to 7,200 km. 72 France: 300 nuclear warheads, Great Britain: 185 nuclear warheads; Shannon N. Kile, Vitaly Fedchenko, Hans M. Kristensen, World Nuclear Forces, in: SIPRI (ed), SIPRI Yearbook 2009; Pp. 345-379, 360, 36273 World Nuclear Forces, pp. 345-379, 36474 IISS, The Military Balance 2009, London 2009; P. 38275 IRBM: Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile76 SLBM: Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile77 World Nuclear Forces, p. 345-379, 36534

The strategic missile forces form the "second artillery", which includes both nuclear and conventionally armed missiles. and Training bases as well as necessary support elements. The second artillery has six missile bases (army level), to which 20 launcher brigades are subordinate. The structure depends on the type of missile in question. In addition, it has a test and a training base. 78 Like the other branches of the armed forces, the Second Artillery is subordinate to the Central Military Commission.The chairman of the Central Military Commission has the final say in the decision on the use of nuclear weaponsanden. The Second Artillery, however, is not the only branch of the People's Liberation Army with nuclear weapons. In the 2008 White Paper, for example, it is explicitly stated that the Navy also has means of strategic deterrence and on nuclear counter-attacks. 80 Furthermore, the 2008 White Paper reveals that other troops also have nuclear capacities. However, these are not listed explicitly. 81 So the army should also have tactical missiles for all ranges. 8278 IISS, The Military Balance 2009, London 2009; S. 38279 Second Artillery Corps, http://www.nti.org/db/china/sac.htm (accessed on September 10, 2009). The current chairman of the Central Military Commission is HuJintao and the vice chairman is Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou. China